 |
By
Adrian Mastracci
Business in Vancouver
“Podium” Column
November 5 to 11, 2002 Issue |
The difference between the amateur and the professional
is knowing when to walk away.
I recently looked at a portfolio whose value was $530,000.
Just 18 months ago, it was worth $885,000. The biggest
deficiency was that the investments were allowed to
fall freely without any intervention. Nobody was taking
action.
Successful investors know how to deal with investment
losses. They know when to hold and when to fold. Moreover,
they do it quickly and without regrets.
Making portfolio selections is not about always being
right. Part of acquiring the skills of investing is
about coming to grips with the prospects of being wrong.
This experience touches us all, including the professionals.
It is important to admit that one was wrong about the
initial investment analysis and equally important to
do something about it. However, folding the tent on
an investment heading south is one of the hardest steps
to take. Yet investors who have mastered it, know what
a dramatic affect it can have on the success of a portfolio.
Adrian Mastracci, investment
counsel at Vancouver based fee-only KCM Wealth Management,
says, “A loss strategy will contain portfolio
damage when the picks go south. A simple approach, such
as selling at 30 per cent below purchase price, is a
positive step.”
Let me illustrate the pain of incurring losses with
a few numbers. If you lose 10 per cent of your investment's
value, you need to gain 11 per cent of the new value
just to get back to the break-even point.
By the time you've lost 50 per cent, you need to record
a 100-per-cent gain before you'll break even. And once
you've lost 90 per cent, you would need to gain 900
per cent to get back to where you started.
Incurring losses is a normal consequence of investing.
The positive step is to curb the losses sooner rather
than later.
The reasons for a loss are not important. If the investment
strategy is not delivering on expectations, it may be
time to act like a professional, take the loss and move
on.
In the perfect world, investors too want to close their
eyes and hope that the losses magically reverse themselves.
In reality, the reversal does not happen often enough.
Being wrong does not make a bad portfolio manager.
Staying too long with the loss is the dilemma.
While investors cannot curb all losses, this five-point
approach should help:
- Stop getting emotionally attached to the investments.
- Expect some investments to result in losses.
- Establish the personal threshold for losses, such
as 20, 30, or 40 per cent.
- Take the loss when the personal threshold for losses
is reached.
- Do not second-guess your decision to take the loss
when you reach your threshold.
A loss strategy will contain portfolio damage when
the picks go south. A simple approach, such as selling
at 30 per cent below purchase price, would be a positive
step.
It is less painful to bail out than to insist that
the investor is right and then bail out later with bigger
losses.
Every loss starts out as a very small loss.
Just imagine for a moment having applied that "30-per-cent-and-out"
strategy to Nortel, 360 Networks, Enron, and all the
other recent big-time losers.
Investing is a game of probability.
Yes, an investor can bail out too early on a loss position.
However, successful investing is about being right
more often than wrong.
Invest like a professional -- that first loss is likely
the best loss. Know when to fold and when to hold. The
medicine is awful, but the investment experience will
improve.
As losses mount the likelihood of recovery is
increasingly distant
| 10% |
11% |
| 20% |
25% |
| 30% |
43% |
| 40% |
67% |
| 50% |
100% |
| 60% |
150% |
| 70% |
233% |
| 80% |
400% |
| 90% |
900% |
| 100% |
It's
really broken! |
|
|
|