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THE KCM NEWSLETTER
Portfolio perspectives by Adrian Mastracci of KCM Wealth Management.
“The bears are still hungry” RETURN TO NEWSLETTERS MAIN
COMMENT ON THIS ARTICLE

There is little sign of hibernation.

Adrian Mastracci of KCM Wealth Management
Adrian Mastracci, president of "fee-only" KCM Wealth Management, says "Investing is about making selections today that investors want to own five years from now."

For Immediate Release

Vancouver, BC (September 24, 2002): The market carnage continues. The third year of the bear has clearly inflicted a vicious mauling on many stocks. Today, nearly 190 points were shaved from the Dow.

Since the beginning of 2002, we’ve achieved the following results:

Market Index
% Drop
Paris CAC 40
-40.69
NASDAQ
-39.39
FTSE 100
-29.64
S&P 500
-28.64
Dow Jones 30
-23.33
S&P/TSX 300
-21.06
Nikkei 225
-11.38

It’s evident that staying in this market is not for the faint of heart.

Staying with today's prolonged bear market, or making new investments, means that the investor’s time horizon is at least five years. Stocks can be risky if time horizon is less than five years.

Making bets now in the stock market implies that the investor has reasonable expectations, is investing within his investment profile, understands the level of risk being undertaken, is on a path of prudent diversification and has a loss strategy to fall back just in case the picks go south even more.

Investors have to accept that rough periods are a normal part of the investing experience. They should also assume that the volatility is not over yet. Hence, a plan of action that contemplates lower prices is beneficial.

I maintain that stock markets are less risky today than in March 2000. Investors do have some positive economic data. However, they face a daily avalanche of negative sentiments.

Fears are still rampant. Investors are concerned and confused. The markets have large swings during the same day, sometimes more than once.

Worse yet, investors discount the good news and magnify the bad news. Nevertheless, let’s step aside for a moment.

Some approaches for investors to consider are to stop reacting to every daily market sneeze. Hasty and emotional decisions should also be avoided.

It seems that everyone is searching for the market bottom. However, the majority of investors will miss it. And, they will only know that in complete hindsight.

So, if stocks have that risky feeling, prune them gradually. If stocks have the bargain bin feeling, buy them gradually.

These are volatile times. It’s important for investors to have a loss strategy. Say, selling the investment if it drops 30%.

It is less painful to bail out, rather than to insist that the investor is right and then bail out later with bigger losses. Each loss starts out as a very small loss.

Let's apply this strategy to Nortel, JDS, 360 Networks, Enron, Lucent, Global Crossing… And, all the others who have gone south.

It’s worth repeating. Investing is not about what is hot today, the coming week, the next quarter or the next year. Investing is about making selections today that investors want to own five years from now.


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