 |
| Adrian Mastracci, president of "fee-only"
KCM Wealth Management, says "Investing is about making
selections today that investors want to own five years from
now." |
For Immediate Release
Vancouver, BC (September 24, 2002): The market
carnage continues. The third year of the bear has clearly inflicted
a vicious mauling on many stocks. Today, nearly 190 points were
shaved from the Dow.
Since the beginning of 2002, we’ve achieved the following
results:
| Market
Index |
%
Drop |
| Paris
CAC 40 |
-40.69 |
| NASDAQ |
-39.39 |
| FTSE
100 |
-29.64 |
| S&P
500 |
-28.64 |
| Dow
Jones 30 |
-23.33 |
| S&P/TSX
300 |
-21.06 |
| Nikkei
225 |
-11.38 |
|
It’s evident that staying in this market is not for the faint
of heart.
Staying with today's prolonged bear market, or making new investments,
means that the investor’s time horizon is at least five years.
Stocks can be risky if time horizon is less than five years.
Making bets now in the stock market implies that the investor has
reasonable expectations, is investing within his investment profile,
understands the level of risk being undertaken, is on a path of
prudent diversification and has a loss strategy to fall back just
in case the picks go south even more.
Investors have to accept that rough periods are a normal part of
the investing experience. They should also assume that the volatility
is not over yet. Hence, a plan of action that contemplates lower
prices is beneficial.
I maintain that stock markets are less risky today than in March
2000. Investors do have some positive economic data. However, they
face a daily avalanche of negative sentiments.
Fears are still rampant. Investors are concerned and confused.
The markets have large swings during the same day, sometimes more
than once.
Worse yet, investors discount the good news and magnify the bad
news. Nevertheless, let’s step aside for a moment.
Some approaches for investors to consider are to stop reacting
to every daily market sneeze. Hasty and emotional decisions should
also be avoided.
It seems that everyone is searching for the market bottom. However,
the majority of investors will miss it. And, they will only know
that in complete hindsight.
So, if stocks have that risky feeling, prune them gradually. If
stocks have the bargain bin feeling, buy them gradually.
These are volatile times. It’s important for investors to
have a loss strategy. Say, selling the investment if it drops 30%.
It is less painful to bail out, rather than to insist that the
investor is right and then bail out later with bigger losses. Each
loss starts out as a very small loss.
Let's apply this strategy to Nortel, JDS, 360 Networks, Enron,
Lucent, Global Crossing… And, all the others who have gone
south.
It’s worth repeating. Investing is not about what is hot
today, the coming week, the next quarter or the next year. Investing
is about making selections today that investors want to own five
years from now.
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