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For Immediate Release
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| Adrian Mastracci, president of KCM Wealth
Management, says "Knowing when to fold is one of the hardest
steps. Yet, investors who have mastered it know what a dramatic
affect it can have on the success of their portfolio."
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Vancouver, BC (June 3, 2002): Incurring losses and watching
investors wrestle with the aftermath is painful.
Adrian Mastracci, fee-only investment counsel and financial advisor
with Vancouver based KCM Wealth Management, comments, "My experience
shows that successful investors know how to deal with investment
losses. These savvy investors know when to hold and when to fold.
Moreover, they do it quickly and without regrets."
"When an investment heads south, and we've had plenty of examples
lately," says Mastracci, "It often feels like catching
a falling knife. The financial pain can be excruciating."
"Making portfolio selections is not about always being right,"
explains Mastracci, "Part of investing is about coming to grips
with the prospects of being wrong. This experience touches us all,
including the professionals."
"It is important to admit that one was wrong about the initial
investment analysis, and equally important to do something about
it," remarks Mastracci, "However, the doing something
part is difficult for many."
"Folding the tent on an investment is one of the hardest steps
to take," observes Mastracci, "Yet, investors who have
mastered it know what a dramatic affect it can have on the success
of a portfolio."
Mastracci illustrates the pain of incurring losses with this table:
If
you lose
this much |
You
need this much gain
just to break even |
| 10% |
11% |
| 20% |
25% |
| 30% |
43% |
| 40% |
67% |
| 50% |
100% |
| 60% |
150% |
| 70% |
233% |
| 80% |
400% |
| 90% |
900% |
| 100% |
It's
really broken! |
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"Incurring losses is a normal consequence of investing,"
comments Mastracci.
"However, investors shouldn't kick themselves for the initial
investment decisions gone sour," recommends Mastracci, "Instead,
the positive step is to curb the flow of losses from disappointing
investments sooner than later."
"The reasons for a loss are not important," explains
Mastracci, "The question is whether the loss is sufficient
reason to reduce the investment position."
"If the investment strategy is not delivering on expectations,
it may be time to act like a professional, take the loss and move
on," says Mastracci, "This approach applies even more
to portfolios whose core holdings are individual stocks."
"Another area of concern is when investors allocate more than
5% of their total portfolio value to one stock, especially the employer's
stock," relates Mastracci, "Too often, this strategy produces
disastrous results when the stock goes into free fall."
"Say an investment loses 50%, it has to gain 100% just to
breakeven. If the loss is 60%, the gain has to be 150% to breakeven,"
observes Mastracci, "Now those are miracle turnarounds ! The
bad news is that I can't recall many of them."
"The devastating impact of incurring losses, especially unchecked
losses, cannot be underestimated," mused Mastracci.
"While it's normal for investors to want to close their eyes
and hope that the losses will magically reverse themselves quickly,"
notes Mastracci, "In many cases, if it happens at all, it takes
years of patience before a turnaround comes about.
Mastracci outlines five observations about incurring losses:
- What is most detrimental to portfolios is not incurring
losses; rather it's keeping them far too long.
- Many investors cannot bring themselves to sell a loss
position, often adding to it with the hope that it will bounce
back to breakeven or better.
- The turnaround either does not materialize or is long
in coming -- either way the losses run unchecked. As proof, many
stocks have declined more than 60% in the last two years.
- Astute portfolio managers have the nerve to admit to
being wrong.
- Being wrong does not make a bad portfolio manager; staying
too long with the loss is the dilemma.
"Investors can't stop all losses from happening," says
Mastracci, "So how can one contain their impact on the portfolio?"
Mastracci offers his five-point approach to reduce the impact of
losses:
- Stop getting emotionally attached to the investments.
- Plan on some investments to result in losses.
- Establish the personal threshold for losses, say 20%,
30% or 40%.
- Cut the loss and stop the bleeding when the personal
threshold for losses is reached.
- Don't second guess the investment decision to cut the
loss.
"Investing is a game of probability," notes Mastracci,
"Yes, one can bail out too early on a loss position. However,
successful investing is about being right more often than being
wrong."
"If the fundamentals change, take the loss and select other
investments with upside potential," counsels Mastracci.
"It is less painful to bail out, rather than to insist that
the investor is right and then bail out later with bigger losses,"
suggests Mastracci, "Each loss starts out as a very small loss."
"Be diligent about focusing on investment losses", summarizes
Mastracci, "Invest like a professional -- that first loss is
likely the best loss. The medicine is awful, but the investment
experience will improve."
"Cutting the losses early inflicts fewer damages on the portfolio,"
concludes Mastracci, "Know when to fold and when to hold. Investment
success improves when losses are kept in check."
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