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THE KCM NEWSLETTER
Portfolio perspectives by Adrian Mastracci of KCM Wealth Management.
2002: Business Confidence Perspective RETURN TO NEWSLETTERS MAIN
COMMENT ON THIS ARTICLE
How will you know when it turns up?
Adrian Mastracci of KCM Wealth Management
Adrian Mastracci, president of KCM Wealth Management observes, "One economic signal that I look for is for companies to stop reporting massive layoffs."
For Immediate Release

Vancouver, BC (January 10, 2002): 2001 will be remembered as a year that investors, consumers and business executives all want to quickly forget. But what do we foresee as the prospects for 2002?

Adrian Mastracci, president & fee-only investment counsel at Vancouver based KCM Wealth Management comments, "The majority of investors, consumers, and executives are clearly expecting some improvements in 2002 over the dismal economic climate of the past two years. That is also my expectation, however, some reflection may be in order."

"Expectations are about interpretations of the long-term perspective. Hopefully, a perspective of at least five years, perhaps more," notes Mastracci, "The widespread pessimism and uncertainty of 2001 does not make it any easier to forecast expectations for 2002."

"In my view, the business confidence outlook will play a significant role in the fortunes of the global markets," says Mastracci, "But how will we know when business confidence turns up in a sustainable way?"

"One economic signal that I look for is for companies to stop reporting massive layoffs. That is a sign that a sense of stability will return to the marketplace. As a minimum, you want to see a slowdown of layoffs as the early indication that an upturn is probable," observes Mastracci.

"At that point, companies can focus in earnest on executing their business plans to improve revenues and earnings," remarks Mastracci, "The prospects of returning to positive earnings and, perhaps, some growth in earnings, will affect the markets in a very beneficial way."

"Businesses will have brought their costs substantially into line when layoffs are no longer on the minds of CEO's," indicates Mastracci, "Consequently, investors, consumers and business leaders will have more confidence about making long-term commitments. These commitments are an important part of sustaining investment expectations. Everybody will breathe a little easier."

"An improved business outlook will assist investors realize their expectations. However, investors should never lose sight that asset allocation decisions have the biggest impact on their portfolios than any other factor," Mastracci explains, "Therefore, it's important that each investor follows a prudent strategy designed to reach the personal goals."

"Expect the 2002 leg of the investment marathon to serve up some rough patches," concludes Mastracci, "Keep a firm grip on your strategies and a keen watch on the business confidence signals."


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